By Doug
Recently I was asked by the Steamboat Springs Resort Chamber Association to give a presentation to a group of business people for a Chamber Breakfast as to the state of the real estate market and outlook to the future.  Also asked to give their perspectives in their appropriate fields were a banker, lodging manager, ski area official and contractor.  I thought I would share with you the notes I gave to the group. 

2009 was a challenging year for the SBS real estate market.  Only 467 sales occurred, which was the lowest total since my records date back to 1995.  $267 million in dollar volume was the second lowest since 1995.  The lowest was in 2001 (9/11).  The 2,100 listings was the highest number of listings we have ever had.

But there is some good news.

The $571,000 average sales price for 2009 was the 3rd highest the MLS has recorded for a single year, and although the 1st quarter of ’09 only posted 62 sales, we’ve had three straight quarters of increasing sales.

Listings have dropped from 2,100 to around 1,900 over the past few months.

We’re about half way through q1 of 2010 and already have 37 sales closed and 70 pending, so we should show a better q1 than last year.  Brokers are seeing an increase in traffic and showings.

I find it interesting and beneficial to not only like to look at what’s happening in the Yampa Valley, but also see how we’re doing compared to other resort markets.

Comparing the 10 resort areas who are members of the Western Mountain Resort Alliance, which consist of Park City, McCall, Jackson Hole, Sun Valley, Telluride, Vail, Summit County, Winter Park, Whistler and Steamboat, we’re not alone in our decrease in activity.

I compared 2006 numbers to 2009 in regards to transactions, dollar volume and to add a human element in the study, broker attrition.

Of the 10 resort areas, the greatest decrease in sales occurred in Summit County, which declined by 290%, from 3,845 sales to 985.  Steamboat was 3rd with a 233% drop, and Whistler had the least amount of decline of only 33%.
Jackson Hole saw the greatest dollar volume decline of 235%; Steamboat was in the middle of the pack with a 155% decline, and Whistler was the least amount of drop at 58%.

Looking at Broker Casualties, the McCall Idaho market (home to the ski area formerly known as Tamarack) had the greatest number of brokers leaving the market at 55%, or from 310 to 200.  Steamboat actually increased 1% from 373 to 376 (we were up to 425 at one time, however), to the resort with the least amount of casualties, which was….Whistler at a 4% increase.

Looking into the future, if you’re a seller you’re going to have a lot of competition to sell your property.  It’s going to need to be competitively priced for a buyer to want to look at it.

If you’re a buyer, you’ve got a lot more selection than ever before.  Although interest rates are still very favorable, you may find yourself needing to put more down than before, and there are very few options with condo and timeshare financing.

To make a deal happen in today’s market, there has to be a seller willing to take much less than what he could have in 2007.  Buyers are looking at a price that may be 10 to 20% below even today’s market to feel comfortable about making a commitment.

As more sellers are adjusting their expectations, I’d look for a slow but steady recovery through this year, and provided more rather than less financing options become available, a 10 to 20% increase in activity over last year could happen in 2010.

The Baby Boomer population is what fueled our market over the past ten years, and they didn’t go away, just decided to sit on the sidelines for a while, but for those who are in the game, there are some great opportunities right now.